How China hopes to win from the war
文章深入探讨了中国对一场假想的美伊战争的看法。中国普遍认为，这场战争是美国犯下的严重错误，将加速其全球影响力的衰落，并验证了习近平主席将国家安全置于经济增长之上的战略方针。中国选择作壁上观，认为这是利用美国失误的良机。中国预计，战争将为自身带来多重机遇，包括在中东重建中获取利润丰厚的合同，向担忧能源供应安全的国家出售绿色技术，以及在与一个被削弱的美国进行外交谈判时获得更多筹码，甚至可能在台湾问题上争取美国立场的转变。然而，这种乐观情绪并非没有隐忧。中国专家对美国军队在行动中运用人工智能感到震惊，这增加了战争的不确定性。同时，战争的长期化可能对中国经济和出口造成损害。文章还指出，中国存在一个“战略盲点”，即不愿设想美国可能成为一个颠覆现有世界秩序的“流氓大国”。尽管中国抱怨西方价值观，但它在由美国主导的全球规则下受益匪浅。全球秩序的混乱将威胁到中国以出口为导向的增长模式。文章最后警示，中国过于依赖美国将因混乱而衰落的假设，而美国可能在变革中重塑自我，中国则可能因保守和意识形态束缚而自我封闭，最终失去未来。
GOING TO WAR against Iran promised to change the Middle East by weakening a villainous regime and thwarting its nuclear ambitions. To its most bullish supporters, the war would also change the world by cowing an ascendant China. It would show how America’s control over the flow of oil leaves China vulnerable. And it would boost deterrence by contrasting America’s military supremacy with China’s reluctance or inability to save its friends.
A month into the fighting, this logic still seems misguided and hubristic. Certainly, that is the way it looks from Beijing. The Economist has been speaking to diplomats, advisers, scholars, experts and current and former officials in China. Almost all of them see the war as a grave American error. China has stood aside, they say, because its leaders understand the maxim attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte, supposedly uttered as his foes were abandoning high ground at Austerlitz: “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
Many Chinese say the war will accelerate America’s decline. They see American aggression as a validation of President Xi Jinping’s focus on security over economic growth. And they expect peace, when it comes, to create opportunities for China to exploit. Only in the background is there anxiety—and the hint of a possible Chinese miscalculation.
文章指出，中国外交官、学者和官员普遍认为美伊战争是美国犯下的严重错误。中国选择作壁上观，遵循拿破仑“敌人犯错时不要打断他”的格言。他们相信战争将加速美国衰落，并验证习近平主席将安全置于经济增长之上的战略，同时预计和平到来后将为中国创造新的发展机遇。
First, the view in Beijing is that America is lashing out at Iran because it feels its power ebbing. Like Britain in the 19th century, its formidable display of military force contrasts with its lack of purpose or restraint. President Donald Trump has spurned the advice of experts. He has issued wild threats and, as this was published, was about to address the nation amid talk of pulling out. His lack of a strategy has set America up for failure.
Chinese experts hope the war will amplify talk of decline. Mr Trump’s musings about a ground operation are a sign of how easily one ill-considered step can lead to the next. If Iran falls into chaos or the regime clings on, America may spend years fighting fires in the Middle East. If Iran seeks nuclear weapons, Uncle Sam may go to war yet again.
All that would distract America from East Asia where, if China has its way, the 21st century will be shaped. This war will also worry countries that depend on America. Not only has their ally become less reliable, but they are paying for its hot-headedness in expensive energy and raw materials. Will Asian countries therefore become more wary of offending China?
Second, Chinese officials think the war shows the wisdom of Mr Xi’s emphasis on fostering self-reliance in technology and commodities, even when those efforts have come at the expense of economic growth (which remains stubbornly and wastefully below its potential). Mr Xi has strived to protect China from chokepoints being closed. He has created a 1.3bn-barrel strategic reserve of crude oil, enough for several months. He has diversified power-generation to nuclear, solar and wind while maintaining the use of domestically mined coal. China is being characteristically pragmatic, by facilitating Iran’s oil trade.
中国官员认为，战争凸显了习近平主席强调技术和商品自给自足的智慧，即使这牺牲了部分经济增长。中国已建立13亿桶原油战略储备，并多元化能源结构，发展核能、太阳能和风能，同时维持国内煤炭使用。这种务实策略旨在保护中国免受关键瓶颈的制约，确保国家经济安全。
Mr Xi has also invested in chokepoints of his own as a deterrent against America. Last year, after Mr Trump escalated tariffs, he threatened to restrict supplies of rare earths, vital for electronics and green tech. Although this leverage will fade as America finds alternative sources, Mr Xi is already seeking new pressure points, including vital pharmaceutical molecules, some chips and logistics. He wants China to dominate new technologies, such as quantum computing and robotics.
习近平主席也投资于自身的“瓶颈”领域，以此作为对美国的威慑，例如曾威胁限制稀土供应。尽管这种影响力会随着美国寻找替代来源而减弱，但中国正寻求新的施压点，包括关键药物分子、芯片和物流。中国致力于主导量子计算和机器人等新兴技术，以增强其战略地位和全球竞争力。
Last, the war will create opportunities. The Gulf countries and Iran will tender lucrative rebuilding contracts. Many countries worried about future embargoes in the Strait of Hormuz will want to buy Chinese green technology, including gear from solar, wind and battery producers—all of which have overcapacity. Whereas America blows hot and cold, China’s brand of cynical self-interest is at least dependable.
China also thinks it can exploit America. Weakened in Iran, Mr Trump may be easier to negotiate with. At his summit with Mr Xi in Beijing in May, China hopes to lay the ground for a deal that will curb America’s use of tariffs and export controls and possibly create a framework for Chinese investment in America. Ideally for China, Mr Trump will say that America opposes Taiwanese independence and supports peaceful unification—a shift from the studied ambiguity of Henry Kissinger’s original formulation.
中国认为，美国在伊朗问题上的弱势将使其在谈判中更易妥协。中国希望在与美国领导人的峰会上，为限制美国关税和出口管制、以及建立中国在美投资框架奠定基础。理想情况下，中国还希望美国能放弃对台湾问题的“战略模糊”，明确反对台独并支持和平统一，以争取更大的外交利益。
Yet China’s optimism is tempered by anxiety. Experts are taken aback by how the American armed forces are using artificial intelligence to co-ordinate operations. That is one more reason for dismissing the idea that Mr Xi is impatient to invade Taiwan. As Iran has shown, war is unpredictable. And if America is declining, war will be unnecessary. Other worries are economic. If war drags on, the harm to China and its exports will mount, even if other countries suffer more.
For all China’s hard-headed analysis, it has one strategic blind spot. Chinese thinkers are too reluctant to contemplate a scenario in which America acts as a rogue power, ripping up the world order it created. Although China likes to complain about Western values, it has thrived under rules that America has laboured to sustain.
An unstable planet would be uncomfortable for China. Global disorder would undermine its export-fuelled growth, a worry for a party whose legitimacy rests on prosperity, iron-fisted order and Chinese exceptionalism.
That scenario may well accompany America’s decline. But not necessarily. Faced with technological and political change, America has repeatedly shown a remarkable ability to reinvent itself. By contrast, China is cautious, ageing and hidebound by party ideology. So far, whenever America does not provide global security it has been loth to step in.
文章指出，中国存在一个战略盲点，即不愿设想美国可能成为一个“流氓大国”，颠覆其建立的世界秩序。尽管中国抱怨西方价值观，但它在现有规则下受益良多。全球混乱将损害中国以出口为导向的增长模式。与中国不同，美国在面对变革时反复展现出重塑自我的能力，而中国则显得谨慎、老龄化且受意识形态束缚。
China is putting a lot of weight on the assumption that America will fail to thrive amid the anarchy it is creating. There is a future in which America embraces upheaval and China shuts itself off. That future may belong to America.