The perils of a ground war in Iran
本文深入探讨了美国对伊朗发动地面战争可能带来的巨大风险和潜在陷阱，并将其与美国在亚洲（如越南、伊拉克、阿富汗）的过往军事介入进行比较。文章指出，尽管卡尔格岛作为伊朗重要的石油出口枢纽，看似是诱人的打击目标，但占领它将引发诸多复杂问题：全球能源价格飙升、伊朗对海湾基础设施（包括海水淡化厂）的报复，以及需要额外确保其他石油码头。驻扎在卡尔格岛的美军将极易受到伊朗无人机和导弹的攻击。其他替代方案，如夺取较小的外岛或对内陆军事基地进行突袭，也可能面临类似的长期且代价高昂的占领问题。文章强调，伊朗的压制性政权对痛苦和经济困境的承受能力远超美国，尤其考虑到特朗普的政治时间表。此外，文章警告称，夺取伊朗浓缩铀的任务将是一项涉及多个地点的庞大而复杂的行动。最后，文章指出，这场战争已经耗费了美国大量军事资源（例如导弹库存减少、海军维护危机），并引起盟友的担忧。许多曾参与中东地面战争的人士认为这些冲突是“巨大的愚蠢”，并应立即就当前的危险发出警告。
LAND WARS in Asia have rarely gone well for America. In Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan it spent years ensnared in conflicts—much longer than first expected. Now, even as he talks of stopping the war, President Donald Trump is also threatening to fight on land. Short of options to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he has sent thousands of troops to the region and talked of invading Kharg Island, off Iran’s coast.
美国在20世纪下半叶和21世纪初多次卷入亚洲地区的地面战争，如越南战争、伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争。这些冲突往往耗时漫长，超出预期，并给美国带来了巨大的经济和人员损失，深刻影响了美国的对外政策和国内政治。
Kharg is appealing. It is a hub for 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan weighed attacking it; Saddam Hussein and Mr Trump bombed it. If America held the island, it might deny Iran much of the 2.4m to 2.8m barrels of oil and refined products that it still exports daily. Iran earns more from those exports now than it did before the war began.
卡尔格岛是伊朗在波斯湾最重要的石油出口终端，承载着伊朗90%的石油出口量。控制该岛意味着能够严重打击伊朗的经济命脉，切断其主要收入来源，因此在历次地区冲突中都成为战略要地。
Marines and paratroopers could take the island. But then what? If they halted Iranian oil exports, energy prices would rise, further harming the global economy. Iran could attack more Gulf infrastructure, including vital desalination plants. America might also need to occupy three other terminals farther south—Jask, Lavan and Sirri—adding to the complexity of the operation. It would be far simpler to stop Iranian tankers at sea, as they left the Gulf.
American troops on Kharg would be exposed. They would need regular resupply by air or sea; Iran would attack runways or ships, and would rain drones and missiles on the occupiers. Kharg is near the Iranian mainland, putting it within reach of more Iranian missiles. Some would get through, as they have in recent weeks, most recently destroying a valuable American E-3 Sentry airborne-radar aircraft in Saudi Arabia.
Alternatives would include seizing Iran’s smaller outlying islands, like Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tunb, or raids inland against military sites. But to be more than a nuisance America would have to stage long occupations, and these would probably run into the same problems as Kharg.
If the war becomes a contest of wills, Mr Trump should remember that the stakes are much higher for Iran’s regime. The loss of oil income, and other blows, could aggravate its economic crisis and perhaps trigger protests. But Iran’s regime is brutally repressive and has lived with a dysfunctional economy for years. Its willingness to endure pain vastly exceeds that of Mr Trump, whose party faces midterm elections in eight months. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps bled American troops in Iraq with roadside bombs; they would relish doing so with projectiles.
伊朗伊斯兰共和国政权自成立以来，经历了多次国际制裁和内部挑战，但其压制性统治和对异见的强硬镇压使其得以维持。与此相对，美国总统的任期和选举周期限制了其长期战略的执行，使得伊朗政权在“意志较量”中可能更具优势。
America could also stumble into a quagmire elsewhere. Mr Trump may favour a mission to seize Iran’s stock of 400kg or so of enriched uranium. Swooping into Isfahan, where the bulk of it is probably underground, would certainly be dramatic. It would also be the largest raid in military history. But some of the uranium is probably held beneath the ground at two other sites, Natanz and Fordow. Assaulting three places at once may be beyond even America’s capabilities.
伊朗的核计划长期以来是国际社会关注的焦点，尤其是在其浓缩铀库存方面。尽管伊朗声称其核计划仅用于和平目的，但西方国家一直担心其可能发展核武器。纳坦兹和福尔多是伊朗主要的核设施，其中包含浓缩铀。
Americans are not the only ones who should worry: so should their allies. The war is already sapping American military power. The destroyed E-3 Sentry was one of a small and shrinking fleet. America has fired over 850 Tomahawk missiles, more than it expended in Iraq in 2003, perhaps a third of its available global stocks. The intense pressure on American ships is likely to compound a maintenance crisis in the navy. American and allied planners in the Pacific will be watching with mounting concern.
持续的军事行动，特别是大规模冲突，会对军队的装备、弹药和人员造成巨大消耗。文章提到E-3预警机和战斧导弹的损耗，以及海军的维护危机，都反映了美军在长期高强度行动下可能面临的资源紧张和战备压力。
Many in Mr Trump’s court—including J.D. Vance, the vice-president, Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, and Pete Hegseth, the secretary of war—took part in previous ground wars in the Middle East. They all concluded that those conflicts had ended up as grand follies. They should speak up about the dangers now.