Lessons for the world from tiny Hungary
这篇文章探讨了匈牙利总理维克多·欧尔班如何通过合法手段逐步侵蚀民主制度和法治，使其国家成为欧盟内最不自由、最腐败的成员。欧尔班被视为民粹主义者的榜样，但他对俄罗斯的友好态度及其政府的腐败在匈牙利国内引发不满。尽管即将到来的选举被操纵，民调显示反对派有望获胜。文章指出，反对派的成功在于团结在魅力型候选人彼得·马扎尔周围，并着重揭露欧尔班政府的经济问题和腐败，而非仅仅停留在抽象的民主理念上。文章还探讨了不受约束的权力如何导致掠夺，以及这种掠夺最终会疏远选民。即便欧尔班下台，其建立的权力结构仍将对新政府构成挑战，但击败他将是匈牙利迈向民主复兴的关键一步，也为全球其他民主国家提供了宝贵经验。
It has fewer people than Belgium, and its GDP is barely 1% of the European Union’s. Yet Hungary counts. Not because clever Hungarians invented the Rubik’s cube and the ballpoint pen, but because an unscrupulous one, Viktor Orban, offers a template for how a democratically elected leader can undermine democracy and the rule of law.
For MAGA Republicans and other populist nationalists, Mr Orban is a model to emulate: a scourge of the woke, a defender of borders, tradition and Christianity. Donald Trump praises his strength; Steve Bannon calls him “one of the great moral leaders in this world”. But his government is unpopular in Hungary; many see it as repressive, corrupt and ripe for sacking. At an election on April 12th, voters will have a chance to do just that. They should take it.
维克多·欧尔班自2010年起担任匈牙利总理，他以强硬的民族主义和保守主义立场著称，常被视为欧洲右翼民粹主义的代表人物。他推崇“非自由民主”模式，强调国家主权、传统价值观和基督教文化，吸引了包括美国前总统特朗普在内的国际右翼势力支持。
Since winning power in 2010, Mr Orban has steadily removed checks and balances, neutering the judiciary, stuffing the bureaucracy with stooges and gradually co-opting nearly every independent institution. Each step was usually legal, and many had precedents in other democracies. But taken together, they consolidated vast powers in a small ruling circle, and opened the door to colossal graft. Hungary is now the least free and most corrupt country in the EU.
民主制度的核心在于权力制衡，包括独立的司法机构、自由的媒体和强大的议会监督。欧尔班政府通过一系列看似合法的修法和人事任命，逐步削弱了这些制衡机制，将权力集中于执政党手中，为腐败滋生创造了条件。
It is also the most Putin-friendly. Energised by Russian gas and oil, Mr Orban frustrates EU efforts to give money to Ukraine and tries to soften sanctions against Russia. European leaders now assume that anything they say in front of a Hungarian official will be passed on to the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin is grateful: Russia’s disinformation tools have been vigorously deployed to slander the Hungarian opposition.
匈牙利在欧盟内部对俄罗斯采取了相对友好的立场，这与欧盟主流对俄制裁和支持乌克兰的政策形成鲜明对比。匈牙利高度依赖俄罗斯的能源供应，欧尔班政府多次阻挠欧盟对俄制裁，并被指控将欧盟内部信息传递给克里姆林宫，引发了欧盟伙伴的担忧。
The election will not be fair. Most media are controlled by the state or Mr Orban’s cronies. Voters are constantly (and falsely) warned that a victory for the opposition will mean that Hungarians will be sent to die in Ukraine. The voting system is gerrymandered for the ruling party, Fidesz.
Nonetheless, polls show the opposition with a decisive lead. Some even suggest it will win a large majority in parliament. The polls may be wrong, but this is Hungary’s best chance in 16 years of getting rid of Mr Orban. If the opposition wins, liberals everywhere should study what it got right.
One lesson is over tactics. The opposition rallied around its most electable candidate, Peter Magyar. Handsome and charismatic, he campaigns skilfully on social media and tirelessly at rallies. As a defector from the ruling party, he can speak out about its moral rot. He also appeals to swing voters, notably in small towns, who might see other opposition figures as too elitist. He is not perfect, but his upstart movement, Tisza, unites the centre left and centre right.
Second, the opposition does not merely grumble about abstract ideas, such as democracy. Rather, it stresses how Fidesz has emptied Hungarians’ wallets. Interest rates are high; the economy grew by just 0.4% last year (nearby Poland managed 3.6%). Mr Magyar excoriates the regime’s corruption, too. Voters can see how astonishingly rich Mr Orban’s chums have grown, thanks to rigged public contracts and regulatory favours. The misappropriation of huge EU subsidies by insiders grew so blatant that Brussels belatedly froze them. Hungary is a textbook example of how unconstrained power—the goal of populists everywhere—is a recipe for plunder; but also of how such plunder ultimately repels voters.
匈牙利经济近年来面临高通胀和增长乏力的问题，与邻国波兰形成对比。文章指出，欧尔班政府的腐败问题日益严重，通过操纵公共合同和监管优惠，使得与政府关系密切的人士迅速致富。欧盟因此冻结了对匈牙利的部分补贴，凸显了腐败对国家经济的负面影响。
On a related note, Mr Trump’s endorsement, in the person of J.D. Vance, who is due to visit Hungary just before the election, does not seem to be helping Mr Orban. The world’s most famous right-wing populist is increasingly associated with war, pricey petrol and corruption. In Australia and Canada, his interference around election time has unintentionally helped the candidates he dislikes. Whether this year will see the populist tide start to ebb remains to be seen. But outfits such as Nigel Farage’s party in Britain, Reform UK, and the Alternative for Germany find it awkward to be MAGA-affiliated. Centrists should take advantage.
Meanwhile, Hungary’s future hangs in the balance. If the opposition wins a big majority, it will be harder for Mr Orban to deny or subvert the result. Even if he is ousted, he could still cause trouble. He has set up institutions, such as foundations running universities and media outlets, that will remain under the control of his friends. Any new government will struggle to unravel Orbanism’s tentacular grip over Hungary. (Poland, where a moderate government is tackling a similar problem, offers lessons.) The first step for Hungary, however, is the most crucial: defeating Viktor.